Investment Strategies To Beat The Market

I started this blog with the premise to inform other fellow investors out there on how to stay ahead of market cycles. To me, investment strategy should be making sound estimation of market direction ahead of the all the news and crap you hear and read about. Because reacting to news is often too late.
Today's entry is very important to me because i try to understand why the market is reacting in certain ways and why the next big crash is constantly being delayed through manipulation by central banks around the world economic powers.

The graph above clearly shows S&P movement from March'09, as it moves up in steps every time a new Quantitative Easing is introduced. Naturally this is not healthy because of the external influence QE has on the market. And we are left with conflicting data, S&P should not be so high when we still have alot of companies with reduced PE ratios, earnings and growth decline.

If you are looking for value, Europe seems to be a better option than US and Japan. Europe is more than 15% cheaper then US in terms of its P/E ratio (EURO STOXX 50-15.57 , S&P 500 - 18.43) giving it room for higher profit. 
Japanese market on the other hand, i personally will avoid because the monetary policy implemented will result in higher volatility (plus i dont really have the extra cash to gamble away). 

In these kind of scenarios with external influences, technical analysis becomes inaccurate and unreliable in my opinion. However one can still gear their investment strategy to pick the best sectors that perform well during late stages in a bull market. I need to pull up my favourite picture below which explains market cycles and recommendations:

I follow this graph very closely. We are in the late bull stages in the stock market cycle. For very good reason, there is no timeline on the x-axis because stock market cycle time can vary due to different influences. At this point of time i strongly recommend holding onto non-cyclicals defensive stocks such as utilities, consumer and healthcare. 
Keep your eye on opportunities in cyclical stocks such as in the luxury goods, tech stocks and financials but dont buy them yet, wait till late bear market stages. 

Dividend investing is always nice to have, keeping at least 30-40% of your portfolio based on regular dividend paying stocks is a strategy i adopt but keep a look out for dividend cuts, cancellations or script dividends.

To summarise, it seems the US market is already quite high, it would have to go to higher highs before the next market crash. This does not mean we should start worrying and panicking. The key thing would be to take profit where targets are reached, not to be greedy and keep at least 40% of your portfolio in cash by end of the late bull run. (Frankly no one knows when that might be, could be end of 2013 or could be after 1st Quarter of 2014) 

Gold Support Line

Gold is nearing its support line. Is it a buy below $1200? Commodities are declining because it is still an Equity market right now. But getting gold below $1200 is going to something i will think about. Lets wait and see the outcome.

Being diversified is not a bad thing, or is it?

Sometime i wonder if being too diversified is a bad thing? The biggest fear is not being able to react quickly enough to a global crisis like the one we experienced not too long ago. In the event of a market crash, i hope to reduce all exposure to US, Japan and HK and 50% of SG. Meanwhile it would be unwise to take advantage of the wonderful opportunity presented to us living in Singapore, the opportunity to play almost any market in the world. What is your exposure level to world markets?

















 

I also analysed my investments in terms of sectors, the graph is below. I usually pay more attention to sectors because of the fact that certain sectors perform better during certain times of the year and during market cycles. You will notice that my exposure to commodities sector is minimal and i would keep it under 10%. I realise my exposure to REITs is 30% but i am not worried because they are mainly hospitality REITs for example Ascott and FarEast. I would be worried if REITs which are overvalued, for example FIRST REIT, K-REIT or CMA. All in all, I am gearing towards defensive stocks more hence my exposure to Consumer and Life Insurance sector. Which sectors should i get out of by end of this year? Definitely Oil & Gas, Commodities, Utilities and Manufacturing.





 

In Search of Fair Value

One can get carried away when there are quite a few undervalued stocks after the recent market pullback. I certainly am not the only one who can see tremendous value in chinese stocks after it has been steadily declining since 2008. When it comes to stock picking, pick the winners or wonderful companies at fair value. Stay away from laggards at all cost. 
It is the perfect time to reflect on a wise saying:

It's Far Better to Buy a Wonderful Company at a Fair Price than a Fair Company at a Wonderful Price - Warren Buffett

Recently bought a piece of ChinaLife insurance, which is undervalued by the way. It is THE biggest life insurance companies in the world and i see great potential for it to grow in the near future as lower middle class people in China begin to be able to afford insurance policies. Another reason for investing in insurance is because of the nature of its business, which i like. Its the best kind of business after casino business because people will continue to pay you monthly until he/she reaches their retirement age of their policy lapses. Can i call it legalised "protection money"? However negative my viewpoint may be of this kind of business, i still acknowledge that the business model behind insurance companies has huge potential to make returns even during a market downturn. Therefore you many notice that insurance companies even if affected by market swings, are usually the first companies to bounce back. Anyway i am taking a long term view of China Life insurance and anything below HKD19/share is a fair value for a wonderful company. Below is the chart. I must say it is not the best technical analysis but i see strong support around HKD18, it keeps bouncing off around that price.

I should also give you example of a company i am staying away from. Petrobrasil (PBR) which recently broke through its lowest price of $13.50. I just dont know where the bottom is anymore because it is an great price for a company that is just not doing well. And if you look at the chart below from 2002, it seems the bottom was actually around US$3/share.

In terms of companies listed in SGX, HPH trust is still cheap because i see shipping business picking up rest of the year. And as talks between China and US to improve trade relations continue, trading volume will go up for the rest of this year. Take positions early and get out as soon as everyone else starts getting greedy. Because people are still fearful now, which tells me to do exactly the opposite. Also the VIX (volatility index) is going down, which if you already know indicates that we might see market uptrend soon.(below 15 is good, below 10 even better)

Adjusting to a Moving Target

The share market is liquid and volatile. Investing is like trying to hit a moving target. One has to adjust target prices either to take profit early or just hold on and be patient. This has happened to me countless number of times but most recenly with ExxonMobil. As i came across a very interesting article by Alexander Valstev on Seeking Alpha. The article analyses market value and comes up with a fair value for Exxonmobil, XOM. (found here) 

I had initially bought XOM below $75 back in 2011 right after the flash crash; with a target price of $94 for my exit strategy. After reading the article by this gentleman, i think i need to re-assess my target price to $116/share for 2 reasons mainly: 
1. Analysis done was very convincing
2. Market has just gone through re-tracement
If you followed my previous post, I strongly believe that we have not reach the climax, the top or the breaking point which will be followed by the next big crash. Oil prices have been steadily rising (Crude Oil now @ $106.70) and i suspect it will continue to rise to levels of $140-$160 a barrel by the end of this year. Therefore oil producing companies are going to benefit for the rest of 2013. 

Could there be other factors influencing this rise? most definitely yes. Political situation in the middle east isnt getting better but regardless of what happens in Syria and Iran, we should see a pick up in trade around the region and rising short term demand in Oil. 

To wrap up my price target for XOM, i have to agree with Mr. Alexander, XOM is one of the most well run companies around the world, currently undervalued. It has been trading between below by $94 initial target price because of external factors; one could even say it is because of current mood of investors: FEAR!

Hectic June but quiet

It has been a hectic time in June in both at my work and financial markets worldwide. I have been quietly watching the markets for opportunities and let me tell you..opportunities are plenty right now. Most counters in Singapore have been correcting to attractive buy levels, but not all. My hands are itchy but i refrain myself from going crazy. Prior to June, i already reduced my exposure in volatile stocks and started to hold onto more cash. Hope you did the same...because short terms corrections do occur during a bull run. Personally i believe we are not hitting peak levels YET. I may be dead wrong and we are actually in the starting phases of a full blown market crash. I am still doubtfull. So lets get help from this famous chart below:

 
Could this be the perfect bull trap right now? YES
Could this be just a normal correction before we head to higher highs (pre 2008)? YES 

I guess we will only know for sure when it is over. My only advice is stick to valuations which are realistic. For example, Starhub has dropped 12% from its peak at $4.70 to $4.10 level now. Yes it is cheaper but i wouldn't put a single cent into it now because it is still too expensive. On the other hand, Chinese stocks have really been doing down ALOT and offer great value, have a look at China Life Insurance, the biggest life insurance company in the world.