tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38612366129375251962024-03-19T10:45:29.823+08:00The Hidden InvestorThe Truth Cannot Stay Hidden Any Longer - Stay Ahead of Market CyclesAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-45508019620156220612015-01-30T13:54:00.001+08:002015-01-30T13:54:06.855+08:00HPH on the Upside<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Had a look through HPH Trust chart this morning. Seems that it has finally broke through a major resistance level and is now on the upside. Which also means i wont be taking up anymore positions above US$0.73 See chart below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghmrQD3M7v5nef2OCik0EDK8XYkQnpb7Ck3QyhnSFkM2lrmgCm9-ky2pPli8sr0ZcvVAaTTH5ND9joMEjUhwfXsiQRjklmld0VInfV-T6zMheOkhTHIJnfwVVjEemR_Rh0DLLryCV8iLI/s1600/HPH+Jan15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghmrQD3M7v5nef2OCik0EDK8XYkQnpb7Ck3QyhnSFkM2lrmgCm9-ky2pPli8sr0ZcvVAaTTH5ND9joMEjUhwfXsiQRjklmld0VInfV-T6zMheOkhTHIJnfwVVjEemR_Rh0DLLryCV8iLI/s1600/HPH+Jan15.jpg" height="312" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The long red line from the start of this counter IPO price to now has been a painful 3 year downtrend, especially if you are like me, in it for the long term (3-5yrs). Over these 4years, i have bought more into HPH so i'm sitting at a comfortable breakeven price. Lets see what the future holds for HPH Trust. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-91043961991711193872014-12-03T10:15:00.001+08:002014-12-03T10:15:18.582+08:00Contradicting situations or maybe not<p dir="ltr">DJIA @ 17,879.55<br>
S&P @ 2068.02<br>
Record highs since 2008 while the STI struggling to get past 3400. This is just because of the nature of investors in Singapore, they are less risk adverse. Nonetheless, we are seeing market tops all around us. As i suggested before many many times, we will break to new highs before the next big crash. This is how markets move, this is the natural law. <br>
Slumping energy prices will have effects on energy exploration, extraction and refining companies. There will be more M&A activities over the last quarter of this year. Oil has collapsed into a bear market as global demand has slowed.<br>
These may seem like contradictions but they are not. We are getting ever so close to the tipping point by 1st quarter 2015. I am getting ready, Are You?</p>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-20161266457517702772014-11-26T16:57:00.002+08:002014-11-26T16:57:58.758+08:00Hyflux - Chart Trends<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recent downtrend of Hyflux has me a little on the edge. Was worried back in 3rd quarter when it broke through the $1.20 major support level. Since then it has taken a nose dive to lows that hasnt been seen recently.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Below is the chart analysis:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWKO5YvBlBgv2ZbuSAb3-NP57SQrv5ZOVs_5mK81jJQEEuZ0nL1NA0vabmFp6ohYnNfFfYW6Es6n26jpL1UkHbbbe1F5VZfRdiyHbdjoW8uLVtyU_kjeTmA-ng_zELcXRggdHCwOoGUk/s1600/HyfluxNov14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWKO5YvBlBgv2ZbuSAb3-NP57SQrv5ZOVs_5mK81jJQEEuZ0nL1NA0vabmFp6ohYnNfFfYW6Es6n26jpL1UkHbbbe1F5VZfRdiyHbdjoW8uLVtyU_kjeTmA-ng_zELcXRggdHCwOoGUk/s1600/HyfluxNov14.jpg" height="318" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you havent already noticed. The lowest it went in 2008 was $0.732. This is for me the last support level which <u>if crossed</u>, panic will set in to hyflux shareholders. What is the company doing wrongly? Is its ability to win water projects in the region totally diminished? Are they getting too comfortable and used to low performance level of the company/stock/management, dare i say it, lack of expansion? Are they not able to cope with the cumulative preference shares which they issued @ 6% back in Apr 2011?? Their dividend pay-out has also taken a hit. These are questions that pop into any rational persons mind who has interest in this counter. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is time to do fundamental analysis on Hyflux again to warrant further investment. Or it is time to accept your losses. We will just have to wait and see where it goes by end of this year, touching close to $0.732 region is "inevitable", just a matter of WHEN and not IF.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-77424965101070941002014-10-03T17:22:00.001+08:002014-10-03T17:22:40.404+08:00Silver Now and Then<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recently read one fellow blogger's post on Silver and decided to do abit of research myself. Here is the link to Got Money Got Honey's post on "<a href="http://gotmoneygothoney.blogspot.sg/2014/10/pre-holiday-silver-sale.html" target="_blank">Pre-Holiday Silver Sale</a>"</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since i am also on a silver accumulation plan like him, my case is more involuntary because i invested in iSilver Trust (SLV) for a short term of 6-12months. That was initial planning. That was then. Now silver has come down to levels which are attractive for further accumulation. Here below is the chart:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTz4VcQ4pXjlxk14GVlHoEDBpgjCgjHxgLNkU6yz7Oa3qxDQCXEvqYm0S8C4eE8GEMpmyj3KIqF0Y9h2DzRdjKQiak2b5hBUblsv5uZtaCFZFPZgLSed2eELfwe_DxVtLsVZmtEmB3l8I/s1600/iSilver+Trust.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTz4VcQ4pXjlxk14GVlHoEDBpgjCgjHxgLNkU6yz7Oa3qxDQCXEvqYm0S8C4eE8GEMpmyj3KIqF0Y9h2DzRdjKQiak2b5hBUblsv5uZtaCFZFPZgLSed2eELfwe_DxVtLsVZmtEmB3l8I/s1600/iSilver+Trust.jpg" height="376" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> If cost of production is between $15-20, (which i read somewhere -I cant verify that information), it would make sense to buy silver below of within that range. Looking at the 5yr chart, it also seems that prices have come down to where is started end of 2009. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking ahead, i do believe silver or Gold for that matter is a good asset class to accumulate. Whether we buy physical asset of in the form of ETFs is another discussion altogether. Current spot rate of Silver seems attractive for further accumulation for my case. I will look into this and execute closer to $16.20. Perhaps next week.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-49898667859938255372014-08-18T16:39:00.001+08:002014-08-18T16:39:30.222+08:00Starhub Chart Aug2014<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Interesting to note Starhub is at a crucial turning point. I used to trade this counter several times when it was below market value (like less than $3/share). Frankly i missed the ride to $4.00 haha Oh Well nevermind. Recently out of curiosity just looking at the price chart to see how is it doing, I noticed that it was at at very strong supporting line, bounced off at $4.05 - $4.11 range line several times. See below Chart:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZyn6aURO-1I02lVbDTfSBbzOXTAuOPsV3PDFgXyYDYJjM5H7QCW-uBTCZeYD2PagjtIKILnIYEgnKjPoQEDIAhuZ5uuDtFTjI7EuQAuZPa0Lqpigt_bfPoM3gBDKWQapu7Jw7hhpfAvI/s1600/Starhub+Aug2014.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZyn6aURO-1I02lVbDTfSBbzOXTAuOPsV3PDFgXyYDYJjM5H7QCW-uBTCZeYD2PagjtIKILnIYEgnKjPoQEDIAhuZ5uuDtFTjI7EuQAuZPa0Lqpigt_bfPoM3gBDKWQapu7Jw7hhpfAvI/s1600/Starhub+Aug2014.jpg" height="280" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> I have strong feeling, it will go for new highs towards the year end. However if it breaks through this strong support line, then it might go all the way down to below $3.50, which is when i will become more interested in Starhub. :D</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happy Investing! </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-50820996167175206502014-08-01T17:32:00.002+08:002014-08-01T17:32:42.680+08:002014 - Year of Profit Taking<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2014 has been a slow year for me personally. I have made very little transactions but here are the profit/loss so far this year:</span><br />
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<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="height: 63px; width: 462px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1974; mso-width-source: userset; width: 41pt;" width="54"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3730; mso-width-source: userset; width: 77pt;" width="102"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1536; mso-width-source: userset; width: 32pt;" width="42"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl67" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">25-03-14 </td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; width: 41pt;" width="54"> 1211</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; width: 77pt;" width="102">BYD Company</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; width: 32pt;" width="42">HKD</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69" style="border-left: medium none; color: #38761d; width: 48pt;" width="64">+75.68%
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl67" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">20-05-14 </td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> G13</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">Genting SP</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">SGD</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; color: #38761d;">+1.17% </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl67" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">29-07-14</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> XOM</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">ExxonMobil</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">USD</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; color: #38761d;">+40.11% </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perhaps I am following too closely to Warren Buffetts rule no. 1 which is "Never Lose Money". Still i am happy with the profits. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However I must acknowledge the fact that, I could have done alot more with my holdings if i took losses on some counters, moving larger capital around to faster growing markets. This did not happen because I did not want to incurr unncessary transaction fees plus take a loss. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">XOM, I decided to close it off couple of days ago because S&P and US markets in general are nearing all time highs. Its time to get careful when other are greedy. XOM has reached by target price anyway @ US$104. (if you see my previous posts on <a href="http://hiddeninvestor.blogspot.sg/search/label/Exxon%20Mobil" target="_blank">XOM target price</a>) So thats why it is time to lock in those profits. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Genting was quite a loss of time for me. Unable to close off the trade at higher profits because of greed and promise of higher prices. Anyway decided to close that chapter without any loss, wasted 1 year behind that. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is true when they say "Time is Money", longer i am able to hold on to some counters, more chances of it bouncing back, then it is all about the timing and execution. Anyway 2014 has been a year of patience and profit taking rather than venturing into riskier options. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently I am looking into Chinese stocks which are still below valuation. Particularly Bank of China (HK:3988). Watch out for that to bounce back to above HK 4.00 by end of this year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-46499282273560994962014-07-23T14:15:00.001+08:002014-07-23T14:15:13.678+08:00Afraid of the Bubble?<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the last 5 years, you will have heard about bubbles at some point, either from your close friend, investment "guru" or in the news. Many people keep saying the stock market is in a bubble already. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have been watching the markets for very long time, recently did not execute any trades because of this fear. If we are really in a bubble, how will we know? What can we do to prepare for the big bursting of the bubble??</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Actually every market also can have a bubble, some more active than others. Industry experts always take the safer stance and warn us if a bubble is imminent, going to burst, corrections going to happen and so on. Personally I like to listen to them and will agree if it is logical. However most of the time, I just do my own research first before taking any action. So should you.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">DEFINE A BUBBLE: Markets always go through ups and downs. So everytime there is a correction, doesnt mean a bubble burst. So please "Investment Guru" on TV if you are reading this (which i doubt) STOP beating the drum everytime. A market bubble is usually the result of irrational exuberance, disconnected from the core fundamentals, where prices shoot up due to unexplained demands. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Best way to look at whether or not there is a bubble is to look at the instrinsic value of a stock which is usually determined by their cash flow, expected growth and risk (liabilities). Naturally if cash flow increase, growth rate climbs, risk drop then the stock price should go up (by right), this cannot be considered a bubble. On the opposite side, if the stock prices go up as cash flow decrease, growth rate is negative and risk is higher, this is a bubble.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For me I like to look at price earnings (PE) ratio and interest rates. See graph below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKh-M9HcjQun7NdzjgYzU3OCdS5WxzTG8qZv9b6kN8KnoGNte-J930rjqZdabp1vMPLPXpaz9cjL70f4N5ZsFS0IY5jLYI9gKKVYMv9uh_nGROnD4bfuM_3lEkeRb2xQkOFY3-vcvo8uU/s1600/CAPE-.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKh-M9HcjQun7NdzjgYzU3OCdS5WxzTG8qZv9b6kN8KnoGNte-J930rjqZdabp1vMPLPXpaz9cjL70f4N5ZsFS0IY5jLYI9gKKVYMv9uh_nGROnD4bfuM_3lEkeRb2xQkOFY3-vcvo8uU/s1600/CAPE-.png" height="432" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see, we are no where near the high PE ratios required to start panic. Partly is due to the low interest environment created by the FEDs and this is affecting markets all over the world. Also notice how long term interest rates are inversely proportional to the PE ratio. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking forward into 2015, I do feel interest rates will continue to be low and markets artificially manipulated. So until then I clearly have no worries of an impending bubble. The million dollar question is what is going to happen by the end of 2015 and starting 2016. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hopefully by then, I would have reduced my exposure to stocks to 20% in defensive counters, and holding the rest in cash to be deployed when required. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-14779914821394639452014-07-02T17:54:00.001+08:002014-07-02T17:54:29.659+08:00China Goaxian<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">China Goaxian is a weird one. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First confession: I have had holdings in it for a long time since its IPO in Singapore. There was this whole hoo-haa about accounting fraud, as a result of which it got de-listed from the SGX. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My feelings at that time was, "ok fine, shit happens", if i can afford to invest in such a company, i have to be willing to lose 100% of my investment. It was a moment of realisation how things can really go against you.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This year as soon as it got listed back, they issued warrants to existing shareholders, of which i was one. Lets see how this plays out in the coming years.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Second confession time: I monitored trading volume and price movements for several weeks so i could buy in equal number of stocks at almost 90% discounted price. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That was my second bullet. Now i just wait for the opportunity to get out of this dreadful counter as soon as i can hit my target price. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recently, ChinaGoaxian has come into the limelight for being a very promising stock, so called multi-bagger. All i have to say to people who are trying to get a piece of action from this counter is be very careful. If investing in ChinaGaoxian has taught me anything, it is to stay away from penny stocks. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-42446058533440786162014-03-25T11:36:00.001+08:002014-03-25T11:36:36.931+08:00Only trade in the past 6 months<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First post in a very long time, did not get time to write regularly since i have been travelling quite a bit. Internet is such a commodity when you are overseas in a third world country. Still i try my best to monitor every now and then on market performance and direction. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For some reason, markets have not been favourable to me in the past 6 months or so during which I did not make any trades. Not enough profit for some, and failed to execute in time for others. However i did have to take profit on my BYD holdings this morning. Here is the chart below. It was just right timing for me to sell before it goes down further.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuoHU6OIDrkbDhUhzHDtrLVF-ko7KpAamXE59tB-k-UqvxcTIhxstwABX7I0AXj1A96E-256jK2ngfEaH-3tVLrKpzciFsVFrZOvQSvxX3t7imUxv1ZIBFrbiST-T4Nftfl9P9KmHII7w/s1600/BYD+Trade+Apr13+to+Apr14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuoHU6OIDrkbDhUhzHDtrLVF-ko7KpAamXE59tB-k-UqvxcTIhxstwABX7I0AXj1A96E-256jK2ngfEaH-3tVLrKpzciFsVFrZOvQSvxX3t7imUxv1ZIBFrbiST-T4Nftfl9P9KmHII7w/s1600/BYD+Trade+Apr13+to+Apr14.jpg" height="299" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Holding period: 1 year approx.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Profit: 74%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Actually the sell position is slightly wrong on the image above, i didnt manage to sell at the top. I was late slightly, sold it at HKD48.25</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We can never expect to sell at the top anyway, always remember not to be greedy and wait for too long. Take profit as you see fit. I am happy with the returns, so i wanted to share with fellow bloggers. Perhaps i will pick this stock up again after its correction, because i still believe that rechargeable lithium batteries for portable devices and automobiles will be huge in the future.Long journey awaits for BYD in the near future pre 2020. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-49631742958021807762014-02-16T17:27:00.000+08:002014-02-16T17:27:08.169+08:00January and STI update<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I didnt have any entries in January because of frequent travelling and work piling up, but it is good that i did not look too much into the markets and make any unnecessary mistakes. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As there was nothing of interest to me in January, looks like worldwide markets are sluggish to say the least. Retails investors as well as Big fund managers are too weary of the cutting down of stimulus by the FEDs. Leaving those of us with investments feeling like we are stuck at the moment, neither having the confidence to buy nor having the courage to sell. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What are we to do? Just hold on with our investments or run away? Looking at the chart below, it is safe to say STI is still int he short term bear market unless it break through the significant 3100 barrier.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIfTTCEJ_BRwOKiCG-vIAFK_CTxeYjjrbg1GyX7_OyvjHmwE3HingUIC3dCvJhb_CDEstheaICH8e8EJB-kTX61Zpz5mnrEhT3U4JSl2hcbxQxAhs2JnDXZdyO4wV8yXDFpxUdQXWDfX8/s1600/STI+Recent+2014.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIfTTCEJ_BRwOKiCG-vIAFK_CTxeYjjrbg1GyX7_OyvjHmwE3HingUIC3dCvJhb_CDEstheaICH8e8EJB-kTX61Zpz5mnrEhT3U4JSl2hcbxQxAhs2JnDXZdyO4wV8yXDFpxUdQXWDfX8/s1600/STI+Recent+2014.jpg" height="283" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However the crossing of this red line to the upside, will signal me to start looking for good selling prices on the counters i already hold. As i have said time and time again, towards the end of 2014 is not going to be good for holding stocks. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-7228028207081107002013-12-19T17:08:00.003+08:002013-12-19T17:08:39.788+08:00HPH Trust going to test bottom again?<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have held HPH Trust from the start of its listing in SGX. One of the reasons for holding on till now would be the promised dividends. Their dividend returns remain above average compared to Bluechip stocks and some REITs even. Now I am wondering if its a good idea to stock up more at lower prices. Look at the chart below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO7fHr9hh9uh7DVg7gBVmIgncC76rY_l-Wkaw9GOQXWeD3_KMUDjbj80ZYOsioLoROGPkbRSfJLDkLeEIYGK6xa-gpwQALyqjwoIaGJWADyyciPU48eyF37C9ayZCIWk3uUT4h2Q0bldk/s1600/HPH+Trust+Analysis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO7fHr9hh9uh7DVg7gBVmIgncC76rY_l-Wkaw9GOQXWeD3_KMUDjbj80ZYOsioLoROGPkbRSfJLDkLeEIYGK6xa-gpwQALyqjwoIaGJWADyyciPU48eyF37C9ayZCIWk3uUT4h2Q0bldk/s1600/HPH+Trust+Analysis.jpg" height="292" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> At the bottom 57cents, it was over 40% discount to its IPO price and a great place to pick up the stock. Unfortunately i did not because at that time nobody knew where the actual bottom would be. Anyway, 2 years have past and we have all observed price movements, strengths and weaknesses of HPH trust.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since that bottom in Oct-Nov 2011, it has been trending up 85cents but never crossing it. Recently it broke through (green line) uptrend in mid 2013, I knew it is time for major correction again. This time it is going to test the bottom 57 cents again. What is the fair value of HPH by local brokerages? its constantly ranging between 70-80cents. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even at the forecasted DPU at 40HKcents/share which translates to 5.2cents (US), buying HPH at 60cents or below will give dividend returns approximately 8.6%. Also giving me a chance to lower by buying price significantly. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Time to be patient and just wait for the opportunity to get HPH at discount price.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">*The above is not recommendation to buy or sell HPH, dont speculate. Most financial guru's will put HPH on "HOLD" or "SELL" but try not to let them influence your long term vision. Long term investors should not be swayed by price volatility but instead look at returns on investment and gradual growth in portfolio size over time. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-36858910554178238902013-12-19T14:11:00.001+08:002013-12-19T14:11:53.234+08:00XOM target almost there, Other US stocks to watch<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Referring to my last post on "<a href="http://hiddeninvestor.blogspot.sg/2013/11/exxonmobil-gets-another-boost.html" target="_blank">ExxonMobil gets another boost</a>". My profit target price is still $108". I believe this is just a matter of time as XOM closed last night at $99.54, gaining almost 7% since my last article. (i.e. if you have been following). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Other US stocks to watch: Goldman Sachs (GS), Coca Cola (KO), Mondelez (MDLZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Keep a close eye on leadership stocks in everysector to gauge an idea of market direction. For example Goldman Sachs price movement provides excellent market direction relative to US, it works for me. This is one the hints you can take away. When a leadership stock such as GS falters, it is time to be skeptical of the market in general. For the past year it has been bullish and last night it broke past $170 barrier. Where is the next stop? $180-$185. When GS reaches, $230-$240 next year, start packing up because some of the smartest people in the world work for Goldman, they invest in their own company. When markets are heading for a downturn, when the economy cannot expand further, M&A deals stop, things start t contract. These people are the first to pull their money out. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Okay, realistically I have gone overboard and exagerrated the above sentiments, but it is true to a certain extent. It has worked for me in the past few years, to follow Goldman Sachs. Might also work for you :)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-74125454482454174142013-12-06T17:03:00.002+08:002013-12-06T17:03:36.000+08:00Suntec REIT potential upside<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at Suntec REIT today. In the past year, It was a good trade opportunity if only you took profit after hitting $1.70++ like me. Now the counter has come down to a significant buy level of $1.50</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My target is going to be around the $1.90 - $2.00 region. Looking at the graph below, the uptrend line seems to have a strong support. Bearing in mind, in order for the bull run to be intact, it must not drop below the previous low of $1.12</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmbecXD6KxZuQi3ruYjfjUJozLHEqocLnkD1NCN_Ljow9VfFYVaAT2xP6p2cPzkJ-nJAVHgBxR1mlz0qcYG16ocOZNk-aTZTXnf0Wz_EHYTznVMFfu11gs5gyWIxcbiuSOUa3-0R47t2M/s1600/SuntecREIT+upside.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmbecXD6KxZuQi3ruYjfjUJozLHEqocLnkD1NCN_Ljow9VfFYVaAT2xP6p2cPzkJ-nJAVHgBxR1mlz0qcYG16ocOZNk-aTZTXnf0Wz_EHYTznVMFfu11gs5gyWIxcbiuSOUa3-0R47t2M/s640/SuntecREIT+upside.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is also a possibility that it might break the supporting trendline. In which case next support is $1.30 region. If you have been holding for the long run, this might be a good opportunity to buy more into SuntecREIT. Not the forget that the revamped Suntec City Mall and Exhibition halls had opened in Sept this year. Looking forward, Suntec has alot of upside to increading rental returns as they also own some critical/vital property in MBFC.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-57087569126843594732013-11-22T18:26:00.000+08:002013-11-22T18:29:08.731+08:00Not All Markets Are the Same<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mixed feeling analysing my portfolio today. I know that my entry points have not been excellent in the past for Singapore stocks. Of course over the past several years, my timing has improved. My failure to have proper exit strategy in the past has haunted me and I still hold on to my biggest losses, namely Hyflux (30% loss) and ChinaGaoxian (still 67% loss after they re-enlisted into the exchange). Those two are the main culprits. Otherwise excluding them average loss is 8%. I'm not that worried as almost 65% is allocated to REITS giving me 7% returns on average. REITs on average are not performing well. Gonna get my rights issue+access @ $1 for Ascott REIT soon, so might bring my losses down slightly. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyway the reason for this post is to share an interesting point here. How come SGX is lagging while the rest of the world is moving towards new highs? I really dont understand. Thank GOD, I have spread or "diversified" my portfolio to stay invested in US, Japan, HK/China as well.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUpdrkiSRQg4Nj0uQ1RWZPznv0UcWHsJMvM-w8rT0T7fGu2xOSoSkr_SJWBYiHi8MFvnOjQ2wDbzjJgkbhc8Ea9j3NGH-FoFK0-teswCh50vj8xdXxDgRpFdkGTuNEsI5wX34N-BwztUI/s1600/Market+Exposure+and+performance.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUpdrkiSRQg4Nj0uQ1RWZPznv0UcWHsJMvM-w8rT0T7fGu2xOSoSkr_SJWBYiHi8MFvnOjQ2wDbzjJgkbhc8Ea9j3NGH-FoFK0-teswCh50vj8xdXxDgRpFdkGTuNEsI5wX34N-BwztUI/s400/Market+Exposure+and+performance.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
(*I didnt take into account dividends)<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see almost 60% is parked in Singapore. Most of them are in the red but only slightly, this year end rally will help me to exit some positions with profit + dividends. As for NYSE/NASDAQ, holding mainly consumer/defensive stocks like KO and MDLZ with decent returns of 20%. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Best performing market for me is still the chinese stocks, timing was good, entry was just after the bottoming out after 3 years of sluggish growth in China. However i wish i had put more into chinese stocks. Mainly holding BYD Intl and China Insurance. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A good lesson here is to stay diversified then only you can lower your risk. </span><br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-55289493002526848332013-11-15T11:08:00.001+08:002013-11-15T11:08:40.374+08:00ExxonMobil gets another boost<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Important news just yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway revealed last night that it has been holding roughly 40M shares of ExxonMobil since 30th Sept. To me, it just re-affirms my position held for the past year. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">XOM last trading price at <b>$93.23</b> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have written about Exxonmobil (XOM) in the past, and my previous profit taking target was $94. However three things have made me re-evaluate my strategy for XOM in the short term. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. It is the year end rally, there is absolutely NO WAY i am selling before end of Dec because it is a well known fact that non-defensive stocks tend to fair well in the last quarter.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. Positive comments from Yellen, the future FED chairman who is going to take over from Bernanke, reassures many weary investors out there.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. Warren Buffett is the ultimate value investor. He see's ExxonMobil to be undervalued.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therefore referring to my previous article "<a href="http://hiddeninvestor.blogspot.sg/2013/03/how-much-is-exxonmobil-worth.html" target="_blank">How much is ExxonMobil worth?</a>" , I said the following: " </span>true potential for XOM is $125 but only if the market sentiments remain bullish all year long". <span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now, I can confidently say that it is, XOM will break the $94 resistance either tonight or by next week and head much higher by mid of 1st quarter 2014.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My profit target price has been adjusted to a conservative $108. How did i come up to this value? Its based on my own risk appetite and individual profit taking target fitting into the timeframe or which i wish to stay invested. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Below is a historical chart of their performance, highlighting places where you could have bought this fantastic company. If you are like me, not having the privilege of being born in the 50s or 60s. Its OKAY. look at the chart and pick up stocks that are undervalued. Technically, when they are hitting the historical support line (red line) and about to bounce back.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggyOHEaLEkFi434kwJAlkJVKqrQGxuvYMxEkDPIFNCdsO8Uyr1Zr2vvmSZY_Z_4nUqr38mFgjMFUKC73qpdzYjIv82YkAgVS_48pBEtjyrgBNj99HXottO5JleKfHXmAYIn-N_xjCPq_k/s1600/XOM+history.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggyOHEaLEkFi434kwJAlkJVKqrQGxuvYMxEkDPIFNCdsO8Uyr1Zr2vvmSZY_Z_4nUqr38mFgjMFUKC73qpdzYjIv82YkAgVS_48pBEtjyrgBNj99HXottO5JleKfHXmAYIn-N_xjCPq_k/s640/XOM+history.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Something interesting you will notice, there has been ups and downs but staying invested in a value stock over the long term actually does pay off, BIG time.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-4953907251666570702013-11-11T17:58:00.000+08:002013-11-12T10:11:01.863+08:00Things To Come<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is not related to the famous science fiction book "The Shape of Things to Come" by H.G. Wells </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">but rather my take on the stock market. Regular readers of my blog would know about my stance on the market today. Take advantage of the market exhuberance but beware of what is coming ahead in 2014. I have said in the past, history tends to repeat itself, even if the Feds keep printing money and delay the inevitable, the outcome will still be the same. Personally i have a bearish outlook for stocks in 2014, i let the chart below do most of the talking. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibt-iSFQKM1q7dKVO6HSuAgPNEoA3eb7mTaUaqT-Y5fhrUjhX-poLMR5Pv-wR8d0RqQY_6QbYsWtLpixspEeJkAIBuxo_nJ64DMfa9eGYqJfaER57cKrdVYc41jxRy2UXqPb8H6Bl1bmg/s1600/DJIA+Analysis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibt-iSFQKM1q7dKVO6HSuAgPNEoA3eb7mTaUaqT-Y5fhrUjhX-poLMR5Pv-wR8d0RqQY_6QbYsWtLpixspEeJkAIBuxo_nJ64DMfa9eGYqJfaER57cKrdVYc41jxRy2UXqPb8H6Bl1bmg/s640/DJIA+Analysis.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Eventhough we have not reached market tops, we are quite close. I think DowJones Industrial average is a better indicator of global market cycles than S&P500, Nasdaq or other indices. Of course our very own STI can tell a different story but there is a high correlation between the two.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On first look, you might say the DJIA is moving perfectly between two parallel lines but the bottom in Sep'2002 does not touch uptrending line. Another fact is that the bottom in Feb 2009 was actually lower than Sep 2002, which lets some people believe that we have been in a bear market since 2000. I however, do not think technical analysis takes into account all the things that have changed. We have not taken into account how the index NOW has more components than it did 20 years ago, the revolution of the internet and increase in accessability to trade the market. All these things add to the volatility equation. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What has happened since 1992? We have seen internet bubble and housing bubble. What has allowed for these bubbles to form? Ever since 2000, the central bank's policy has only delayed an eventual bottoming of the stock market. But i am not going to complain about that because it has made many, including myself, to get a decent return from investments. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recent activities in the stock market and other asset classes is sending a clear signal that bubbles are forming everywhere mainly due to loose printing of money and low interest rates. Many people are quick to forget how often central bank policies have backfired throughout history, as they try to artificially quell inflation. Central bank policies have only three achievements throughout history: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. Making a few successful traders, filthy rich over a short period of time >>> suddenly they become guru's and start conducting seminars and writing books. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. Ensure Banks make more money, and also making the wealthy eventually wealthier</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. Eventually failing and sending the world into turmoil</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What is happening recently? You must have seen Twitter jumping almost 73% on its IPO debut appearance. Everybody is probably thinking, hey i want a slice of that pie also. But did you stop and think about the business of twitter? How are they able to generate income through advertisements alone? I guess there will always be followers who will buy into the hype but i do not think its a sustainable business model, same goes for Facebook. Another internet bubble in the making perhaps.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Asia, we see bigger bubbles forming across all asset classes. Look at the Indian stock market which has reached record highs over the past week despite all the problems and massive devaluation of its currency. Its definitely speculator's market, with no fundamentals. Look at the chart below for SENSEX, where is the supporting line for their post 2004 rally?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEineGK6Ofe1nFIiMeivr_KEEL2YhbSmrEc4xdQOxt7kDuDvkKYIfi7meAKJf0Un-3F2ivNmDNlewq7P973aTbQ-4N1qJgMteySEcEXxRNp21me9BtR6Vu_FI5BnE6PsMVbbhBmCDJB2Hz0/s1600/BSE+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEineGK6Ofe1nFIiMeivr_KEEL2YhbSmrEc4xdQOxt7kDuDvkKYIfi7meAKJf0Un-3F2ivNmDNlewq7P973aTbQ-4N1qJgMteySEcEXxRNp21me9BtR6Vu_FI5BnE6PsMVbbhBmCDJB2Hz0/s640/BSE+Index.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Housing markets in Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia are all in a bubble. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Australian housing market has been on an uptrend since the 1950s and is one of the world biggest housing bubble. Now Aussies are being allowed to use their "superannuation funds" as collateral to buy residential properties, reflating their bubble again. Look at the charts below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwdIiGb8g_-KDtJ0CihKCJ7FFfIi5jo-wIGraC7P4CQseBwFyEUTbLkZzo7vJ209b7uxFcc6KrTmNHu68nf08-DmKc-pKuBz2a6HfgyfJgqMoeSBVIdMt4255_ZM1ehKb4CELrvwgrvko/s1600/realhouseprices1880to2011.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwdIiGb8g_-KDtJ0CihKCJ7FFfIi5jo-wIGraC7P4CQseBwFyEUTbLkZzo7vJ209b7uxFcc6KrTmNHu68nf08-DmKc-pKuBz2a6HfgyfJgqMoeSBVIdMt4255_ZM1ehKb4CELrvwgrvko/s400/realhouseprices1880to2011.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEWHC1GVDjpM5e1zZDV5E4_k1nfrvP9vJk2Pa-TD1yWSlmlz4SZC_jZSfeViy2nwqmJXZ8fJlhvvDAUslvUPwMXPFOSU39QRE0ifc4qi-WWRuG9FP5XhlMaAQ3w9rds7iceyXmqzYzMJo/s1600/Aus+Housing+Price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEWHC1GVDjpM5e1zZDV5E4_k1nfrvP9vJk2Pa-TD1yWSlmlz4SZC_jZSfeViy2nwqmJXZ8fJlhvvDAUslvUPwMXPFOSU39QRE0ifc4qi-WWRuG9FP5XhlMaAQ3w9rds7iceyXmqzYzMJo/s400/Aus+Housing+Price.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So just beware of things to come. It is not going to get easier. Central banks around the world are clouded by their hubris, endlessly printing money and stretching without contraints. Bear in mind, our financial system as it stands today has a very short history compared to the thousands of years of written history. No body is sure how the future will play out. But i do know for sure, increasing asset price volatility is here to stay. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The best defense would be to: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. Diversify your assets (Stocks, Commodities, Property etc.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. Don't take on "bad" debt. (read Robert Kiyosaki's Rich Dad Poor Dad, in case you are not sure what is good debt and bad debt.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. Avoid hyped up IPOs (which gets undue media attention)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4. Hold some cash reserve (SGD is still one of the best in the world)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since last week you will hear and read in every type of media that the economy is going to get better ahead. Yes it will, I am counting on it. Just be prepared to take profit and close positions. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I leave you with a statement in an article by BoeckhInvestmentLetter which i like very much:</span><br />
<blockquote class="quote">
"The
fragile state of the economy and financial system will continue to
require inflation of money and credit, heavy government intrusion into
the private sector, and frequent resorting to subsidies and support
programs. This will continue to distort relative prices of labor, goods,
services, and assets. It will sustain the economy in an artificial
state and will compound instability and make it impossible to understand
what is real and what is not."</blockquote>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-90610171437152941512013-11-08T17:42:00.000+08:002013-11-08T17:42:02.034+08:00Be a Dividend Investor<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A dividend investors goal should be to generate a increasing stream of sustainanle dividend income, through careful selection of dividend growth stocks. Their investment plan must not be dependant on daily market fluctuations. I am not being overconfident but a dividend investor must be able to say confidently that "daily fluctuations have no bearing on my investment plan" because i have bought this stock at a great discount and will keep building on it for the next 10 or 20 years (through 2-3 market cycles). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dividend investors out there, do not worry because most of your stocks will keep sending you dividends quarterly or annually (as long as the company is well managed, increasing in profitability year after year. What is most important is to focus on quality dividend stocks and purchase them at attractive valuations. In Singapore's short history, there are very few stocks that i can think of which have actually raised their distributions for at least ten consequtive years and may continue to do so for the next ten years. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Companies like Singtel pay out dividends regularly, and it has increased over the past 11 years. They actually are a bit unpredictible because in 2003 and 2009, there was no increase. While on some years, you would get Special dividends, which is awesome. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Take away the special dividends and other distributions and just look at Interim/Final dividends over the last 11 years and take the average:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2002 >>> 2013</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5.5c >>>> 16.8c (dividends increased average 10.8% annually)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which is not bad right? </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7acBZPzn4FFQEGGNg-GXzronQjhx5lE4yq8mfb4TDYUwRRjx3MuREHj4MQat4XRipTk8Zz2B0nBki-Rp1bRbr9yzTYDIUAaucAWMYR4aMhhYPrtMSlZI6QpeBrpD8YHZBtdY8AXd5CIc/s1600/Singtel+Dividend+History.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7acBZPzn4FFQEGGNg-GXzronQjhx5lE4yq8mfb4TDYUwRRjx3MuREHj4MQat4XRipTk8Zz2B0nBki-Rp1bRbr9yzTYDIUAaucAWMYR4aMhhYPrtMSlZI6QpeBrpD8YHZBtdY8AXd5CIc/s640/Singtel+Dividend+History.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As dividend investors, we should try and avoid unpredictability. I firmly believe that a strong management team which focuses on consistently sharing a portion of the profits with investors in the form of dividends will continue doing so, as long as the business is able to support it. <a href="http://www.dividendsranking.com/index.php" target="_blank">Dividend Ranking</a> website is pretty good to do the research on dividend history:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.dividendsranking.com/index.php</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I pulled this one for KeppelCorp from the above website:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiMuQxsSoCHQdltU_0vWSYLWZfHh6dwNxepHZ-fuWXx6OLxOb2xiCnEZutisXZtmcK9rtuY7uwd5lo5oyNvdu5gNTUmWzqXFpmM9Vrl-gNKZvfTKE6TOgelMtEp2fR-HOC8U1cB39Ef4I/s1600/Keppel+Corp+Dividend+History.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiMuQxsSoCHQdltU_0vWSYLWZfHh6dwNxepHZ-fuWXx6OLxOb2xiCnEZutisXZtmcK9rtuY7uwd5lo5oyNvdu5gNTUmWzqXFpmM9Vrl-gNKZvfTKE6TOgelMtEp2fR-HOC8U1cB39Ef4I/s640/Keppel+Corp+Dividend+History.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There
are of course another part of the dividend equation. In Singapore you
can invest in REITs or Business trusts which promise you regular
dividends (90% payout for REITs). But REITs are not the same as company stocks. They did not promise an increase in dividends over time, just that 90% of the profits will be payed out, which means if they profit less in the particular year, you get less. Obviously. So there is the risk of unpredictability.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You know i wish investing in dividend stocks could be so easy that you can just buy it and close your eyes. But you cant do that. Investors need to periodically monitor the financial health of their stocks. It should not be very complicated once you have done initial background research on the business and shareholding structure. Fundamentals of the company do not change overnight. Singtel will most likely be in the telecom business the next 10 or 20 years. Keep an eye out for news related to the particular stock such as mergers and acquisitions, that could prove very profitable or spell disaster in the making.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bottom line is this: Market fluctuations should not scare intelligent dividend investors, instead it should be used as opportunities to build on your portfolio or trim off some profit. Steep drop in prices for dividend paying stocks provide excellent entry points for long term wealth accumulation. Personal note, Watch out for these in the next crash: Singtel, Singpost KeppelCorp, Jardine related stocks or if interested overseas, Coca cola; Colgate; Procter & Gamble; Exxonmobil; Kimberly Clark; Unilever; Merck & Co; Sanofi Aventis; Eli Lilly; Johnson & Johnson. If you noticed, Healthcare stocks have pretty good dividend payout rates but they are slow growth stocks. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-42327935056389292982013-11-02T14:48:00.000+08:002013-11-02T14:48:00.350+08:00Genting Singapore 2013<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have a small amount invested in Genting. Currently wondering if it will be good to hold onto or sell and run. Looking at the graph below, I can only conclude one important thing. It has been very fiercely speculated in the past especially since the opening or Resort World Sentosa. One thing is for sure, they have been overbought in the past, they still remain overbought. Technical analysis proves nothing significant as there are no good supporting lines. Performing a Fibo retracement over the longest period available will show that the chart has bounced from the 50% retracement level. It would seem that $1.25 is a strong support price. However, the bottom has not been established for this great bull run. My exit price shall be $1.65 for two main reasons. Dont want to be too greedy and I believe it is in a short term down trend in search for a bottom. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisTXx8ajrR7bc57a1DDWYwkWk6t-ORFg7Ut95sPRF6vsKDaZd0N6hxwsFBlEl0xxPgmKbsURjn9qwsoqayyVAoBy-HZ6uP-1cwk2VWTB0ESWYifK3NkvkjwbJtgEugsWhnEYg_U0wNn-E/s1600/Genting+1Nov13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisTXx8ajrR7bc57a1DDWYwkWk6t-ORFg7Ut95sPRF6vsKDaZd0N6hxwsFBlEl0xxPgmKbsURjn9qwsoqayyVAoBy-HZ6uP-1cwk2VWTB0ESWYifK3NkvkjwbJtgEugsWhnEYg_U0wNn-E/s640/Genting+1Nov13.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-68802928711751248692013-11-01T14:34:00.000+08:002013-11-01T14:34:21.661+08:00One more bullet for Hyflux<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It seems like ages ago when i initially bought Hyflux. It was a rookie mistake; I was trying to catch a falling knife, cut myself and still not recovered fully. Having bought equal amounts at three intervals back in 2011, I have been sitting on my hands throughout 2012. Still hoping that it will turnaround one day. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipSnD099wbM43Y7tVnP-67lTx_U4M8RdbIJDRm8GL55-vtV8TX-L1FMu1O2M8o8hacgPHxXDmIXetYhn73wpP8hg09U1i6E14lqGwlXLXvFOk4Xav3n_hDcNs-UP3HYujr3U4pxmh76P8/s1600/Hyflux+Transctions.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="66" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipSnD099wbM43Y7tVnP-67lTx_U4M8RdbIJDRm8GL55-vtV8TX-L1FMu1O2M8o8hacgPHxXDmIXetYhn73wpP8hg09U1i6E14lqGwlXLXvFOk4Xav3n_hDcNs-UP3HYujr3U4pxmh76P8/s400/Hyflux+Transctions.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After firing 3 shots, I am running out of bullets to spare for this counter. I only have 1 last shot left. This is a perfect example of how to break up your investments into 4 equal portions. Buy equal amounts at every 25% drop in value. However I could not do this blindly without technical analysis and/or without believing that the company have potential for future growth. Tech analysis will show me how to spend my last bullet, see below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxg_BPu4oDkL1WNRJ1suNyDWiXLUWfqTVCAsRhVj1YSc996HR11TmlsS-R0MOLBA3VUXOsePYbgfg8ZF4PKapBALBZlf1pdQsKXeVKFOdDyQTCOk1uJpEoYUh_s8qCS-syiSuUoAX9-wE/s1600/Hyflux+1Nov13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="387" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxg_BPu4oDkL1WNRJ1suNyDWiXLUWfqTVCAsRhVj1YSc996HR11TmlsS-R0MOLBA3VUXOsePYbgfg8ZF4PKapBALBZlf1pdQsKXeVKFOdDyQTCOk1uJpEoYUh_s8qCS-syiSuUoAX9-wE/s640/Hyflux+1Nov13.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From the chart, you can see a beautiful supporting uptrend line since 2001 to now. The question is whether the price now ($1.17) is going to respect this trendline. Since it has bounced twice from hitting this trendline, I can conclude for myself that there is higher chance of bouncing from this trendline once again. My risk of exposure is greatly reduced. My last bullet will lower my buy price to $1.50 region. It has taken me 2.5 years to come to this point. One of my worst performing shares in my portfolio (always been in the red).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It does not take a rocket scientist to see that current price levels seems to be well supported. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ON the positive side: Dividends collected from this counter comes to 4.38% over the last 2 years.(2.1% annually) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also things are looking good as they have finished the largest desalination plant in Singapore this year. Perhaps they will get more projects in the Middle East and China. There is one thing i know for sure, water is vital for life, we will face more shortages in water supply in the future. Therefor any company that is in this sector has potential for growth as long as they are well managed and reputable. To me, Hyflux fits the bill. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-30767312492760695182013-10-18T11:35:00.003+08:002013-10-18T11:35:58.164+08:00Far East Hospitality REIT<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are you surprised that the debt ceiling has been raised further? I am certainly not. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last quarter of the year has begun, everything is in full swing, an exciting time for people who are just coming back to the markets. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I could have held on to my capital a little longer as the ongoing US government shutdown continued to bring the broader market down and with it many high quality stocks. However i chose to ignore the noise and buy on fundamental strength. Having a vision for the long-term is very important in investing in equities. Build on your portfolio when things are looking down, sit back and relax as people rush into the markets because you have already taken positions. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For example, I have been buying more of Far East Hospitality REITs and CACHE REIT when they were down. My average buy price has come down quite a bit. Fundamentally FarEast is strong but still quite RISKY, technically speaking.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQF7CeU-X6vTQTt0OFNHSn6BB2Nb_UCH8Ob5Ni9S0AmvyAkVd8681njlF8VlDduGMpo7-m_3AEIrHpaZLLzUyVi_2oLUdvW8g3kdN_6mXJ8IQjcVwKdfX9-rhFwjoEkp2PfX95V_oDpbY/s1600/FarEast+REIT+Oct13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQF7CeU-X6vTQTt0OFNHSn6BB2Nb_UCH8Ob5Ni9S0AmvyAkVd8681njlF8VlDduGMpo7-m_3AEIrHpaZLLzUyVi_2oLUdvW8g3kdN_6mXJ8IQjcVwKdfX9-rhFwjoEkp2PfX95V_oDpbY/s400/FarEast+REIT+Oct13.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As it is with all recent IPOs, we cannot really judge the fair market value. However we know that there is support at IPO price of $0.93 and more recenly $0.84 (recent bottom). The problem is we do not know how low it can go. What i do know is that Far East is a great organisation and proper management and their property portfolio is strong. If its share price is a true reflection of how hotels and service residences perform during end of year tourism spikes, I am confident that its share price will definitely test resistance levels of $0.96. That is a critical resistance level to cross if the trend is going to reverse. Otherwise, we may be looking at a downward trend without a significant bottom. </span><br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-71314760217320105112013-10-14T17:46:00.000+08:002013-10-18T11:03:18.614+08:00OCBC Bank online features<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Did you ever wonder why OCBC claims to be the worlds strongest bank? I know from the ratings that all 3 local banks are actually top 5 in the world. I have been most impressed by their customer service, their leniency to give me large credit limit as well as their online platform.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Only today i found myself on the eve of Hari Raya, feeling lazy to do any actual work, checking out OCBCs online platform features. I must admit that it is most impressive. If you have an savings/current/creditcard account with them, you must check out their feature which allows you to see how you are dealing with your finances compared to others. Some may say its invasion of privacy and probably be surprised they are being tracked so closely. For me I didnt really mind, it helped to see how I am doing, anyway it is all anonymous.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJeZ-b7Nw1TyqHDraLaCBBLh04zdg-cit7Zwvko97hT8uMZMXVmi3nfU5hnwpQMyOoLaVK9zXDAcegFSlt1HD-lnXhyphenhyphenH809RHWNQ8XL4IDk3x-a5VOMobpI7iuy13PNmHzH_0RdNLbmw/s1600/Personal+Assessment+%28category%29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJeZ-b7Nw1TyqHDraLaCBBLh04zdg-cit7Zwvko97hT8uMZMXVmi3nfU5hnwpQMyOoLaVK9zXDAcegFSlt1HD-lnXhyphenhyphenH809RHWNQ8XL4IDk3x-a5VOMobpI7iuy13PNmHzH_0RdNLbmw/s400/Personal+Assessment+%28category%29.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Quite interesting to see where most peope keep their assets, as for me I use OCBC mostly for the purpose of investments, so that would explain the chart below which shows most of my money being channelled into my investment account in iOCBC. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6snhuDoNj8ZF4Kk8nuGxLGlOc5QUP3mQC0TYv5pRoMZbSrV17ce4MQcZYUmUgnCC-1NSoA0dLWnZpBjnCR4NZYU3NauhfDkxAI3zsIF86D63g8Bw_qx-y4mQvuGoblh_igqAIlv0Tf1Y/s1600/Personal+Assessment+%28Assets%29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6snhuDoNj8ZF4Kk8nuGxLGlOc5QUP3mQC0TYv5pRoMZbSrV17ce4MQcZYUmUgnCC-1NSoA0dLWnZpBjnCR4NZYU3NauhfDkxAI3zsIF86D63g8Bw_qx-y4mQvuGoblh_igqAIlv0Tf1Y/s400/Personal+Assessment+%28Assets%29.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was surprised to see relatively young unmarried people having 45% of their money in fixed deposits and 50% in investments. Personally I never bought any investment products (unit trusts) directly from banks and probably do not intend to in the future. Its just personal preference that i believe in picking my own stock portfolio. However this has got me thinking a little, I probably should allocate more money in fixed deposits, but at interest rates touching the floor, i do not see much incentive.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibWDwj8RkDHH8W2DsByJ_NivoTrTE-VR1FzKfBqR3irA_ryiOfunMgcIQ5k1RkfU_K_I_m-wayisv6otc7JOOsZdrJrvOWkgUtUCL1diLzgURgCaQpZgfR1xz_odo0uB8R5M_cruOjxY8/s1600/Personal+Assessment+%28Owed%29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibWDwj8RkDHH8W2DsByJ_NivoTrTE-VR1FzKfBqR3irA_ryiOfunMgcIQ5k1RkfU_K_I_m-wayisv6otc7JOOsZdrJrvOWkgUtUCL1diLzgURgCaQpZgfR1xz_odo0uB8R5M_cruOjxY8/s320/Personal+Assessment+%28Owed%29.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next is debt. This chart is accurate, i never accumulate debt, always pay your bills in full every month. Quite surprisingly average debt for "people like me" is $3129 (credit card + Easycredit). <b>If you are reading this and fall into this category, Please heed my advice, do not use Easy Credit if you dont intend to pay it off in a weeks time. Its just going to suck you dry.</b> </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnrPQOb47kWJYYZb5-SkWe7WcPp65ZczsggfjZEZ20HWE0wYhYMZSbdBBvtjyO7nj1ev1FSAXI_crD8O9ydeMMfBrhYXTN_3qycSsvtz84x2Dsaz76-nKCQYOz6TZcNp9fxspSlm7UTo4/s1600/Personal+Assessment+%28Spending+Habits%29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnrPQOb47kWJYYZb5-SkWe7WcPp65ZczsggfjZEZ20HWE0wYhYMZSbdBBvtjyO7nj1ev1FSAXI_crD8O9ydeMMfBrhYXTN_3qycSsvtz84x2Dsaz76-nKCQYOz6TZcNp9fxspSlm7UTo4/s400/Personal+Assessment+%28Spending+Habits%29.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lastly spending habits. This is accurate for me, I never go shopping. haha! Only spend on groceries and travel to get the points, most of my money will go towards investments. Wondering what "other financial services & charges" refer to?? Me too, i am guess these are the late payment fees which people get slammed by borrowing with EasyCredit.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All in all, I now understand why OCBC bank is one of the worlds leading bank. Their online features rival the best and it is very user friendly. Alot of lessons to be learned from this very interesting online feature. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Disclaimer:</b> I am in no way advertising for OCBC, or saying they are wrong in any way. I just found their features quite useful and decided to share with fellow readers. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I am writing this, OCBC Bk is trading at 10.44 today. almost reaching its 52 week high of $11.40, overvalued and of course not really the time to get into banks. Wait for the next big crash, I will be keeping an eye on OCBC. Since 2002, a lot has changed of course, OCBC is not the same as it used to be back in 2002 - 2005. Next upcoming crash, we can definitely see up to 50% retracement. Just be patient.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOGcThgCmsvrYl0M8F7mnhkuDbJhn5ao_GEeMuXWA3saj2h2aZic_4RBtOvW0nQ_ZJjeiIw04W5hFgX0ThL6sd29TPrEgoeU2QzPFG_Ha8wnGSa1URXfpS_IufG1KyEEmtBIMM5dT0SjU/s1600/OCBC+Bank+Oct13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="579" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOGcThgCmsvrYl0M8F7mnhkuDbJhn5ao_GEeMuXWA3saj2h2aZic_4RBtOvW0nQ_ZJjeiIw04W5hFgX0ThL6sd29TPrEgoeU2QzPFG_Ha8wnGSa1URXfpS_IufG1KyEEmtBIMM5dT0SjU/s640/OCBC+Bank+Oct13.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span> Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-15168820382948175792013-10-14T13:35:00.000+08:002013-10-14T13:35:05.782+08:00Time for Action<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you are thinking in the same line as me for past month, you should be appalled by the greatest drama or stage play that is unfolding in the US. Its amazing how fear and uncertainty can be spread through our media. I have purposely stayed away from the markets for a month because there has been nothing as tempting or worth taking the risk.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We watch the news, read the papers everyday for our amusement but you should know deep down what really is going to happen. For the benefit of those who are still confused, let me just anticipate the possible outcome or rather the most likely scenario; US is not going to default, everyone is going to make a fuss about it but they will make the US pay for their debt. Debt ceiling may or may not be raised further, it does not make a difference. Once the fiscal "drama" is over, everything will be back to normal and we will see the next seasonal bull run for the rest of the year. Be prepared to take profits by the end of it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile in Singapore, MAS forecasts core inflation to be hovering in the 2-3% region for 2014. This is highly likely for 1st quarter of 2014 but it might be 4-5% for the rest of 2014. (that is just my opinion) So stocks with good dividends are still a safe bet. UNTIL interest rates go up late 2014.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFxcxObxgSw7HqtgswaiciYnqDTDmb0mgAb7izjS4o7sfa_rP2Rhf_tQlJF19tmQCxbpIoxFNTlsp3E-zSQaPVjGTam-Aye-eqMb7jtd63r99v4Z-LOW540cgPxntLX8EtNt9pqdflrcI/s1600/fiscal+drama.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="369" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFxcxObxgSw7HqtgswaiciYnqDTDmb0mgAb7izjS4o7sfa_rP2Rhf_tQlJF19tmQCxbpIoxFNTlsp3E-zSQaPVjGTam-Aye-eqMb7jtd63r99v4Z-LOW540cgPxntLX8EtNt9pqdflrcI/s640/fiscal+drama.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-21218329331015091252013-09-19T14:27:00.000+08:002013-09-19T14:27:18.308+08:00Fed decides to postpone their tapering<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I cannot say: "I knew this would happen" but my gut feeling was that all the news about Fed tapering their bond-buying was OVER-sensationalised by the News media. And I am glad this happened because i get to buy into some stocks at a discount. Good for investors and speculators alike.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Feeling lazy to type today but this is quite big news and should share with everyone so just copied and pasted the report from my broker. Its below for your reading pleasure:</span><br />
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>Fed Refrains From Taper as It Seeks
Signs of Sustained Growth</u></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>2013-09-18 21:38:44.617 GMT</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">By Joshua Zumbrun and Jeff Kearns</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>The
Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the $85 billion pace
of monthly bond buying, saying it needs more evidence of lasting improvement
in the economy and warning that an increase in interest rates threatened
to curb the expansion.</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“Conditions in the job market today are
still far from what all of us would like to see,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
said at a press conference today in Washington after a two-day meeting
of the Federal Open Market Committee. “The committee has concern that
rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months would have the
effect of slowing growth.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">U.S. stocks rose, sending the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a record, while Treasuries and gold
rallied as Bernanke stressed that the pace of bond buying would be dependent
on economic data, and the Fed has no predetermined schedule for tapering
the purchases that have pushed its balance sheet to $3.66 trillion.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>“There is no fixed calendar
schedule, I really have to emphasize that,”</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Bernanke said. </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>“If the
data confirm our basic outlook” for growth and the labor market, “then
we could begin later this year.”</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">The S&P 500 climbed 1.2 percent to 1,725.48
at <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_2051274793" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">4:02 p.m.</span></span> in New York. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note dropped
15 basis points to 2.70 percent. Gold for immediate delivery jumped $55.61
to $1,366.25 an ounce. Oil rose more than 2.5 percent.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“It looks like the Fed has done a major
reset in terms of expectations on what they need to see before they start
to taper,” said Chris Rupkey, the chief financial economist for Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Rate Outlook</b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>The central bank, in a statement,
left unchanged its outlook that its target interest rate will remain near
zero “at least as long as” unemployment exceeds 6.5 percent, so long
as the outlook for inflation is no higher than 2.5 percent.</b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Bernanke added in his press
conference that the first interest-rate increase may not come until the
jobless rate is “considerably below” 6.5 percent.</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“Even after asset purchases are
wound down,” Bernanke said, the “Fed’s rate guidance and its ongoing
holdings of securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly
accommodative, consistent with an aggressive pursuit of our mandated objectives
of maximum employment and price stability.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Bernanke said the Fed could also specify
that it would not tighten if inflation was too low. “An inflation floor
is certainly something that could be a sensible modification or addition
to the guidance,” he said.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Forecasts Reduced</b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Fed officials today reduced their
forecasts for economic growth this year and next. They forecast U.S. gross
domestic product to increase 2 percent to 2.3 percent this year, down from
a June projection of 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent growth.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“They feel the risks are too great to taper
now, and the economy is not growing as fast as they had hoped,” said John
Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
“They are going to take a few more months and maybe start in December.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Economists had forecast the FOMC would dial
down monthly Treasury purchases by $5 billion, to $40 billion, while maintaining
its buying of mortgage-backed securities at $40 billion, according to a
Bloomberg News survey.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Fed officials were spooked by an increase
in bond yields that followed Bernanke’s comments in May that the Fed may
step down the pace of purchases in the “next few meetings,” said Scott
Brown, chief economist for Raymond James & Associates Inc.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">in St. Petersburg, Florida.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Treasury Yields</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed
almost 1 percentage point through yesterday since Bernanke’s <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_2051274794" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">May 22</span></span> comments,
with yields on Sept. 6 exceeding 3 percent on an intraday basis for the
first time since July 2011. That compares with 1.61 percent on <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_2051274795" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">May 1</span></span>, and
a record-low 1.38 percent in July 2012.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“They were really surprised back in May
and June by the market’s response to the initial talk of tapering,” Brown
said.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“The Fed’s view was that it’s the amount
of asset purchases, not the monthly pace that matters. In that case, it
doesn’t matter whether they start tapering in September or December, but
the markets decided it does, so it does matter.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“We’re seeing the reaction that bond yields
are coming down, and that’s got to be helpful for their outlook.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented
for the sixth meeting in a row, repeating that the policy risks creating
financial imbalances.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Higher interest rates have started to take
a toll on housing, one of the drivers of the expansion. A Commerce Department
report today showed that builders began work on fewer U.S. homes in August
than projected by economists.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Housing Starts</b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Housing starts rose 0.9 percent
to a 891,000 annual rate, following the prior month’s 883,000 pace that
was weaker than previously estimated. The median estimate of 83 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg called for 917,000. Permits, a proxy for future projects,
dropped more than forecast.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed
home loan was 4.57 percent last week, compared with a record-low 3.31 percent
in November 2012, according to Freddie Mac. The rate soared 35 percent
in 10 weeks ended <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_2051274796" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">July 11</span></span>, the most ever for a comparable period, the data
show.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Bernanke, who is nearing the end of his second
term as chairman, has orchestrated the most aggressive easing in the Fed’s
100-year history, pumping up the balance sheet from $869 billion in August
2007 and holding the main interest rate close to zero since December 2008.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Leading Candidate</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, a supporter of
Bernanke’s policies, is the top candidate to succeed him after former
Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew from contention, according
to people familiar with the process.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">The Fed’s asset purchases have fueled gains
in asset prices. Counting today’s increase, the S&P 500 Index has
climbed 23 percent since Aug. 31, 2012, when Bernanke made the case for
further monetary easing at the central bank’s annual forum in Jackson
Hole, Wyoming.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Officials have also credited the program,
which began last September, with reducing the unemployment rate, which
is the lowest since December 2008. Officials have said that they would
maintain bond purchases until the labor market has “improved substantially.”</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">At the same time, recent data on payrolls,
housing and retail sales have lagged behind economists’ forecasts.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Jobless Rate</b></span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">U.S. companies created 169,000
jobs last month, fewer than economists projected, and increases in the
prior two months were revised down. The unemployment rate fell as workers
left the labor force. August and July were the weakest back-to-back months
for payroll gains in a year.</span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Employment growth has nevertheless
improved since the bond purchases began. The U.S. has added an average
of 160,000 jobs over the past six months, compared with 97,000 originally
reported for the half-year before the Fed decided to start the third round
of purchases a year ago.</span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Faster employment gains may be
needed to spur the consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of the
economy. Retail sales last month rose less than forecast, with purchases
climbing 0.2 percent, the smallest gain in four months, the Commerce Department
reported last week.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Bright Spots</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Homebuilding and manufacturing remain bright
spots for the economy. Companies such as Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. have
said the recent rise in mortgage rates will temporarily restrain the housing
recovery rather than end it.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Homebuilder confidence held this month at
the highest level in almost eight years, even as mortgage rates rose. The
National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index registered
58 this month, matching August’s revised reading as the strongest since
November 2005.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Such optimism has found fuel from a recovery
in home prices that pushed up the S&P/Case-Shiller index of values
in 20 cities by 12.1 percent in June from a year earlier.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Factories turned out more cars, appliances
and home furnishings in August, propelling the biggest increase in U.S.
industrial production in six months. Output at factories, mines and utilities
rose 0.4 percent after no change the prior month, the Fed reported this
week.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Auto Sales</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Cars and light trucks sold last month at
the fastest annualized rate since 2007, according to researcher Autodata
Corp. Sales at General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and
Honda Motor Co. all exceeded analysts’ estimates.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Texas Instruments Inc., the largest maker
of analog chips, is among companies with a brighter outlook as global markets
stabilize.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“Orders continue to be quite solid” this
quarter, Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said at a Sept. 11 conference.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">“We continue to see strength in three of
the four regions of the world,” with Asia, Japan, and the Americas expanding,
he said.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">For Related News and Information:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Fed Seen Paring QE to $75 Billion Pace This
Month, Survey Shows NSN MSPWYG0D9L35 <GO> Fed Officials Rebuff Coordination
Calls as QE Taper Looms NSN MS4UHC6TTDS0 <GO> Less Tapering Becomes
Tightening Credit No Matter What Fed Says NSN MT8N176K50YJ <GO> Fed
balance sheet graph: FARBAST INDEX GP W <GO> U.S. economic forecasts:
ECFC US <GO> Treasury curves: GC I25 TODAY 1Y 2Y 5Y 7Y <GO>
Global economy watch: GEW <GO> World economic statistics: ECST <GO></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">--With assistance from Steve Matthews in
Atlanta and Caroline Salas Gage, Aki Ito and Craig Torres in Washington.
Editors:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">James Tyson, Christopher Wellisz, Kevin Costelloe</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">To contact the reporters on this story:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at <a href="tel:%2B1-202-624-1984" target="_blank" value="+12026241984">+1-202-624-1984</a>
or <a href="mailto:jzumbrun@bloomberg.net" target="_blank">jzumbrun@bloomberg.net</a>; Jeff Kearns in Washington at <a href="tel:%2B1-202-624-1806" target="_blank" value="+12026241806">+1-202-624-1806</a>
or <a href="mailto:jkearns3@bloomberg.net" target="_blank">jkearns3@bloomberg.net</a></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">To contact the editor responsible for this
story:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Chris Wellisz at <a href="tel:%2B1-202-624-1862" target="_blank" value="+12026241862">+1-202-624-1862</a> or</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><a href="mailto:cwellisz@bloomberg.net" target="_blank">cwellisz@bloomberg.net</a></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-22223802793644831722013-09-16T18:05:00.000+08:002013-09-17T13:37:56.699+08:00Building a Dividend Portfolio<div style="text-align: left;">
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I came across a really good article on SeekingAlpha.com and i want to share it. It is called <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694272-diy-dividend-investors-club-building-a-sustainable-long-term-dividend-portfolio-part-1" target="_blank">"DIY Dividend Investors Club: Building a Sustainable long term dividend portfolio</a>". Although it is based in the US, many principles can be reused in Singapore. We can even invest in those stocks they have highlighted. They are great dividend plays, some of the most well established companies in the world. They sell things that we need everyday of our lives to make our day a little easier. [eg. Coca cola - soft drinks, Kimberly Clark - tissue/toilet paper, Colgate - toothpaste, Unilever - various consumer goods, Procter & Gamble - Various consumer goods, Mcdonalds, Wal-Mart etc.] This is only Part I, they are going to publish more parts in the future. Do look out for them. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However my key issue with investing in the US for dividends has always been the 30% tax they charge on all dividends!! There is a way to get around this if you are a long term investor, engage in Dividend Reinvestment Scheme if the company allows it. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tried to do this, a year ago but I have fallen flat in my search to establish something, my broker at OCBC said "we don't have such scheme". I gave up for the time being. If anybody knows how to escape the 30% tax, do let me know. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I think i read somewhere that if you open an account with an US trading platform, they hold your investments in their custodian account and reinvest the dividends to buy in more units each time. I am still quite a noob when it comes to investments.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile FEELING INSPIRED; I am thinking of adapting this strategy to Singapore stocks with the following aims:</span><br />
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<ul>
<li><b>Portfolio Size:</b> $100,000</li>
<li><b>Target # of Stocks:</b> 5-10</li>
<li><b>Maximum Stock Concentration:</b> 10.0% of portfolio</li>
<li><b>Maximum Sector Concentration:</b> 20.0% of portfolio</li>
<li><b>Maximum High Yield Concentration:</b> 20.0% of portfolio</li>
<li><b>Minimum Dividend Yield:</b> 5.0%</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Its entirely possible to build a dividend portfolio in Singapore with the expectations to earn a minimum of 5% per year. Lets see how it goes, It will be a 20 year plan starting from 2014. </span> Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3861236612937525196.post-39571764509427805542013-09-16T17:35:00.002+08:002013-09-17T13:38:28.393+08:00First REIT part II<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Referring to my previous post titled: <a href="http://hiddeninvestor.blogspot.sg/2013/09/first-reit-oct-2013.html" target="_blank">First REIT Oct 2013</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OCBC research's take on First REIT below:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: xx-small;"><b>First REIT: Upgrade to BUY on valuation
grounds</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: xx-small;"><b>Summary: </b>We visited five of First
REIT’s (FREIT) properties (four hospitals and one hotel and country club)
in Indonesia over a two-day period last week. The hospitals are operated
by Siloam International Hospitals (subsidiary of Lippo Karawaci) and are
generally well-maintained and equipped with modern medical equipment from
international brands such as Siemens and Philips. Meanwhile, FREIT recently
lowered its floating rate exposure from 72% to 46% of its total debt following
a refinancing exercise. Its next refinancing need will only come in 2016.
We believe that FREIT’s sharp share price correction has been overdone,
as it has minimal exposure to the volatility in the IDR thanks to its lease
structure. Hence we upgrade FREIT from Hold to <b>BUY</b> on valuation
grounds, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.20. FREIT also offers
an attractive forecasted distribution yield of 7.6% in FY13 and 8.3% in
FY14. <i>(<b>Wong Teck Ching Andy</b></i><i>)</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I have to agree with the above, based on valuation First REIT is quite attractive. In fact i really like their aggressive strategy in Indonesia plus they are doing a good service to the people by building more hospitals around the country. From an ethical standpoint, I like their business model. It is also going to give 7-8% returns looking forward into the near future. Obviously there are risks involved. Key risks would be volatility in the Indonesian Rupiah and rising interest rates for borrowing. Hmm... i wish had more money to invest, cannot really free up any cash from other investments just yet. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Remember you can't just buy and sit on your investments, If it gets cheaper, buy another equal part or if it rises by 20%, sell half for profit and keep the rest. Key strategy is not to be greedy. </span></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04642141551826633587noreply@blogger.com0