Tuesday 4 June 2013

First REIT pullback

Been watching REITs closely for some time now. The recent pullback in REITs has me more interested for 2 reasons:
-Their still relatively high yields
-Healthy correction driven mostly by FEAR

Of particular interest is First REIT because of the fact that i like the business sector they are in: Hospitals/Nursing Homes in Indonesia/Singapore/Korea. They have shown themselves to be aggressive in expansion and since 2009, their stock price have gone up significantly from 30cents a piece to almost 1.44 at its recent peak.


At the moment, the counter is undergoing a retracement to 23.6% on the Fibo chart, testing levels on $1.17 so i am happy to see this an another opportunity to get into this again. But i would wait until 50% retracement from its peak to $0.99. Am i being too ambitious? According to the chart though, a 50% retracement correlates with the major supporting uptrend for the past 4 years. Something to note here: we are seeing low volumes being traded.

I regretted selling FirstREIT prematurely at $1.04 but was happy to clock in almost 30% profit last year. Maybe this pullback is going to be a good chance for other people who have been sitting in the sidelines.

Most of the REITs are displaying similar behaviour, I just feel there has been some profit taking from retail investors and institutional investors alike, the general market trend still Bullish. Its not over till the fat lady sings. At the moment though, just sit back and wait till markets stabilise before going in again. Here is Keppel REIT analysis below which is similar retracement but general trend still upwards:

Note: High volume traded recently suggest there might not be much reversal for Keppel REIT. But the bottom uptrend line is still intact. Currently resistance turned support line @ 1.40 is being tested. Wait and see if this breaks down.
Disclaimer: We have not reached a market peak yet but dont take my word for it. Do your own research before making any investment decision. We could as well be experiencing the beginning of a downward trend. 

No comments:

Post a Comment