I have held HPH Trust from the start of its listing in SGX. One of the reasons for holding on till now would be the promised dividends. Their dividend returns remain above average compared to Bluechip stocks and some REITs even. Now I am wondering if its a good idea to stock up more at lower prices. Look at the chart below:
At the bottom 57cents, it was over 40% discount to its IPO price and a great place to pick up the stock. Unfortunately i did not because at that time nobody knew where the actual bottom would be. Anyway, 2 years have past and we have all observed price movements, strengths and weaknesses of HPH trust.
Since that bottom in Oct-Nov 2011, it has been trending up 85cents but never crossing it. Recently it broke through (green line) uptrend in mid 2013, I knew it is time for major correction again. This time it is going to test the bottom 57 cents again. What is the fair value of HPH by local brokerages? its constantly ranging between 70-80cents.
Even at the forecasted DPU at 40HKcents/share which translates to 5.2cents (US), buying HPH at 60cents or below will give dividend returns approximately 8.6%. Also giving me a chance to lower by buying price significantly.
Time to be patient and just wait for the opportunity to get HPH at discount price.
*The above is not recommendation to buy or sell HPH, dont speculate. Most financial guru's will put HPH on "HOLD" or "SELL" but try not to let them influence your long term vision. Long term investors should not be swayed by price volatility but instead look at returns on investment and gradual growth in portfolio size over time.
Referring to my last post on "ExxonMobil gets another boost". My profit target price is still $108". I believe this is just a matter of time as XOM closed last night at $99.54, gaining almost 7% since my last article. (i.e. if you have been following).
Other US stocks to watch: Goldman Sachs (GS), Coca Cola (KO), Mondelez (MDLZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG).
Keep a close eye on leadership stocks in everysector to gauge an idea of market direction. For example Goldman Sachs price movement provides excellent market direction relative to US, it works for me. This is one the hints you can take away. When a leadership stock such as GS falters, it is time to be skeptical of the market in general. For the past year it has been bullish and last night it broke past $170 barrier. Where is the next stop? $180-$185. When GS reaches, $230-$240 next year, start packing up because some of the smartest people in the world work for Goldman, they invest in their own company. When markets are heading for a downturn, when the economy cannot expand further, M&A deals stop, things start t contract. These people are the first to pull their money out.
Okay, realistically I have gone overboard and exagerrated the above sentiments, but it is true to a certain extent. It has worked for me in the past few years, to follow Goldman Sachs. Might also work for you :)
Looking at Suntec REIT today. In the past year, It was a good trade opportunity if only you took profit after hitting $1.70++ like me. Now the counter has come down to a significant buy level of $1.50
My target is going to be around the $1.90 - $2.00 region. Looking at the graph below, the uptrend line seems to have a strong support. Bearing in mind, in order for the bull run to be intact, it must not drop below the previous low of $1.12
There is also a possibility that it might break the supporting trendline. In which case next support is $1.30 region. If you have been holding for the long run, this might be a good opportunity to buy more into SuntecREIT. Not the forget that the revamped Suntec City Mall and Exhibition halls had opened in Sept this year. Looking forward, Suntec has alot of upside to increading rental returns as they also own some critical/vital property in MBFC.
