Lets look at OCBC's outlook for Genting:
Genting Singapore: 2013 outlook more cautious
Genting Singapore (GS) reported 1Q13 revenue of S$669.6m, down 15% YoY and also 16% QoQ, hit by much weaker win percentage (2.12% versus 2.85% theoretical) in the premium players’ business; net profit posted a decline of 44% YoY and 13% QoQ to S$115.9m. All in, a pretty muted set of numbers, as top-line only met 20% of our original FY13 forecast while bottom-line met 18% of our full-year number. Going forward, management has turned slightly more cautious, citing the still uncertain global economic outlook, especially with the recent muted economic data coming out of China. We pare our FY13 revenue estimates by 10% and core earnings by 16%. As such, our DCF-based fair value also slips to S$1.41 from S$1.52 previously. Recent run-up in share price seems slightly over-done; hence we downgrade to SELL from Hold on valuation grounds. However, we would buyers closer to S$1.30 or lower. Longer-term catalyst could come from a potential IR license overseas in markets like Japan. (Carey Wong)
I am not sure whether to hold or sell Genting but i do agree that there will be more buyers around $1.30 region. In fact i was one of them to picked this counter up at $1.30 several months ago. Lets look at the 1yr and 3yr chart:
It may be slightly bearish at the moment, but i am betting on the importance of the tourism industry in Singapore. This has a long way to go being supported by the rising trendline. I would be careful if the price drops below the 200-day moving average in the 5 yr chart. The price of genting is nearing a turning point soon, either it breaks down terribly or keeps rising above the previous weeks closing, being supported by major trendlines and 100d, 200d moving averages. Also notice the relatively low volume, i guess majority shareholders will adopt a hold and see attitude, as would I.
Genting Singapore: 2013 outlook more cautious
Genting Singapore (GS) reported 1Q13 revenue of S$669.6m, down 15% YoY and also 16% QoQ, hit by much weaker win percentage (2.12% versus 2.85% theoretical) in the premium players’ business; net profit posted a decline of 44% YoY and 13% QoQ to S$115.9m. All in, a pretty muted set of numbers, as top-line only met 20% of our original FY13 forecast while bottom-line met 18% of our full-year number. Going forward, management has turned slightly more cautious, citing the still uncertain global economic outlook, especially with the recent muted economic data coming out of China. We pare our FY13 revenue estimates by 10% and core earnings by 16%. As such, our DCF-based fair value also slips to S$1.41 from S$1.52 previously. Recent run-up in share price seems slightly over-done; hence we downgrade to SELL from Hold on valuation grounds. However, we would buyers closer to S$1.30 or lower. Longer-term catalyst could come from a potential IR license overseas in markets like Japan. (Carey Wong)
I am not sure whether to hold or sell Genting but i do agree that there will be more buyers around $1.30 region. In fact i was one of them to picked this counter up at $1.30 several months ago. Lets look at the 1yr and 3yr chart:
It may be slightly bearish at the moment, but i am betting on the importance of the tourism industry in Singapore. This has a long way to go being supported by the rising trendline. I would be careful if the price drops below the 200-day moving average in the 5 yr chart. The price of genting is nearing a turning point soon, either it breaks down terribly or keeps rising above the previous weeks closing, being supported by major trendlines and 100d, 200d moving averages. Also notice the relatively low volume, i guess majority shareholders will adopt a hold and see attitude, as would I.
Sell. There is rumour a 3rd IR is coming up soon. And how much more money Singapore residents can afford to donate?
ReplyDeleteThanks temperament, heard about the 3rd IR rumour to be on Pulau Ubin. Think it was just meant as a joke becos long time pulau Ubin residents were being asked to leave. Anyway you are right Genting is a short term "sell".
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