Friday, 1 November 2013

One more bullet for Hyflux

It seems like ages ago when i initially bought Hyflux. It was a rookie mistake; I was trying to catch a falling knife, cut myself and still not recovered fully. Having bought equal amounts at three intervals back in 2011, I have been sitting on my hands  throughout 2012. Still hoping that it will turnaround one day. 


After firing 3 shots, I am running out of bullets to spare for this counter. I only have 1 last shot left. This is a perfect example of how to break up your investments into 4 equal portions. Buy equal amounts at every 25% drop in value. However I could not do this blindly without technical analysis and/or without believing that the company have potential for future growth. Tech analysis will show me how to spend  my last bullet, see below:


From the chart, you can see a beautiful supporting uptrend line since 2001 to now. The question is whether the price now ($1.17) is going to respect this trendline. Since it has bounced twice from hitting this trendline, I can conclude for myself that there is higher chance of bouncing from this trendline once again. My risk of exposure is greatly reduced. My last bullet will lower my buy price to $1.50 region. It has taken me 2.5 years to come to this point. One of my worst performing shares in my portfolio (always been in the red).
It does not take a rocket scientist to see that current price levels seems to be well supported.

ON the positive side: Dividends collected from this counter comes to 4.38% over the last 2 years.(2.1% annually) 
Also things are looking good as they have finished the largest desalination plant in Singapore this year. Perhaps they will get more projects in the Middle East and China. There is one thing i know for sure, water is vital for life, we will face more shortages in water supply in the future. Therefor any company that is in this sector has potential for growth as long as they are well managed and reputable. To me, Hyflux fits the bill.

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