Tuesday 14 May 2013

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

I actually did go away for a week in May after selling off all my Singtel shares but it seems the stock market is relentless. Everyday climbing higher and higher up the mountain until we eventually reach the cliff at the end. Perhaps the best strategy right now is to hold and see, regardless of how heavily you are involved with the stock market, it is always important to know exactly where your emergency exits are at all times. This includes paying attention to technicals as well as fundamentals and maintaining a short term view on the positions you own.

In any case, it helps to be prepared for the worst case scenario, i.e. to evacuate the stock market when the time comes, you will stand a much better change of emerging relatively unscathed vs. those that are fully invested and get caught in a market crash. Personally i position myself for such an emergency scenario by shifting capital to higher quality names which are less volatile and offer attractive valuations with strong technical support. It will do much better then lower quality, high beta and momentum stock (especially penny stocks). 

By the way, I have been thinking, would you consider ThaiBev as a risky investment? After acquiring a portion of FnN, they have strengthened their position as a major player in this region, valuations also look great. That is a question i pose to you fellow readers.   

A little on Japan
It seems that Japan is on this unstoppable path to financial meltdown. Over the last 20 years,  the Japanese economy has gone through property and financial bubbles. Their ageing population is not helping either, increasing social burden on the declining number of taxable labour. As a result of this, Japanese economy has been stagnant and undergoing deflation. What is happening now is Bank of Japan (BOJ) is aggressively pumping in money to combat deflationary pressure by targeting 2% inflation in the next 2 years. However you may feel about this move, Japan is still heading for a serious market crash....which everyone is going to feel. Don't forget Japan is still the third largest economy in the world, they own massive amounts of US treasuries and their financial institutions are intertwined with the global market. Any weakness or shock in Japan, would be MUCH MUCH bigger than Greece, it would send financial markets around the world in a frenzy.

For now though, hope for the best....diversify and relocate capital to safer avenues, preparing for the worst to come in 2014. 

Disclaimer: The above is only my viewpoint on the market situation now. It is in no way advice to get in or out of the market. Investing involves calculated risks and you may lose all your money. Please consult professional advisor before making any investing decisions for yourself.

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