Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Market Sentiment vs My Sentiment

Past few weeks I am finding it difficult to adjust my sentiments to how it is being played in the stock markets. Referring to my previous post in mid August "Final Push", It is getting harder to stand my ground or belief that there will be a final bull swing before another major crash. Since the month of August has been a bloody one, markets all around the world taking a huge hit. If there is one thing i still do believe in, its that always stick to valuations. 

Chinese stocks for me seemed undervalued with a lot of upside. My timing has never been perfect but my investments in China Life Insurance and BYD have yet to drop below my buying price, which tells me that I bought them at strong support levels. 

On the other hand, Singapore stocks have not fared well in the past few weeks. Mixed feelings arise as prices drop reducing my profits but also creating opportunities to add into my portfolio. 
As for REITs, where do i begin? Sabana REIT has fallen by almost 20cents/share. Cache REIT (see pic below) It has become even more attractive at $1.10 - $1.20 range. Since their dividend payouts will give you >7% for just holding onto it at those prices. I am happy to hold onto my shares of CACHE but not going to buy at those levels. Since the last drop broke through their supporting trendline, technically there is no way i can say with confidence that it has reached a bottom. I have a feeling it will keep falling to the dollar region before news around properties and interest rates are not looking good. People (investors) are anxious about REITs and the smart ones are pulling their money out of it. As for me, It would make sense to buy more below $1.00.



 Ascott REIT also tells a similar story but it has not seen such a big drop. Maybe the investors of Ascott REIT know what a great investment it is. Especially since they are expanding strategically into rest of Asia. I like their business plan, and their dividend payouts even more. Its a steady stream of income. Just a note of the price levels. It has been trading around $1.20 this week, going forward, I think it will come back up to >$1.35, no doubt. 
Those people who missed the opportunity to get a piece of this REIT should do so before its too late (*Of course do you own research first and then make an informed decision)
Here the graph of Ascott REIT below:
Yes it has crossed the supporting trendline (that is worrying me) but it is being supported by a resistance turned support line at $1.15. Also note the volume being traded. Comparing it to CACHE REIT above, volumes being traded are below low. At $1.20 it is still very attractive to me. I have to say, still not worth add onto my position unless i get it at close to a dollar. 

I suppose my investment philosophy is simple. Always reserve money for further reinforcements. Usually break up your investments into 4 parts. Buy in more as it gets cheaper. Sell it higher to reap the benefits if the stock is not worth holding onto. Don't speculate and dont surround yourself with negative thoughts. There will also be people telling you negative things, "Get out now, while you still can" and "I told you so". You decide when its time to get out. Patience is a virtue, so be patient.  If you have been following my blog posts, you will realise that we are still in the late stages of a 3 year bull market. I would start to worry in the 1st quarter of 2014.  

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