HPH on the Upside

Had a look through HPH Trust chart this morning. Seems that it has finally broke through a major resistance level and is now on the upside. Which also means i wont be taking up anymore positions above US$0.73 See chart below:

 The long red line from the start of this counter IPO price to now has been a painful 3 year downtrend, especially if you are like me, in it for the long term (3-5yrs). Over these 4years, i have bought more into HPH so i'm sitting at a comfortable breakeven price. Lets see what the future holds for HPH Trust.

HPH Trust going to test bottom again?

I have held HPH Trust from the start of its listing in SGX. One of the reasons for holding on till now would be the promised dividends. Their dividend returns remain above average compared to Bluechip stocks and some REITs even. Now I am wondering if its a good idea to stock up more at lower prices. Look at the chart below:

 At the bottom 57cents, it was over 40% discount to its IPO price and a great place to pick up the stock. Unfortunately i did not because at that time nobody knew where the actual bottom would be. Anyway, 2 years have past and we have all observed price movements, strengths and weaknesses of HPH trust.
Since that bottom in Oct-Nov 2011, it has been trending up 85cents but never crossing it. Recently it broke through (green line) uptrend in mid 2013, I knew it is time for major correction again. This time it is going to test the bottom 57 cents again. What is the fair value of HPH by local brokerages? its constantly ranging between 70-80cents. 

Even at the forecasted DPU at 40HKcents/share which translates to 5.2cents (US), buying HPH at 60cents or below will give dividend returns approximately 8.6%. Also giving me a chance to lower by buying price significantly. 

Time to be patient and just wait for the opportunity to get HPH at discount price.

*The above is not recommendation to buy or sell HPH, dont speculate. Most financial guru's will put HPH on "HOLD" or "SELL" but try not to let them influence your long term vision. Long term investors should not be swayed by price volatility but instead look at returns on investment and gradual growth in portfolio size over time. 

 

Current Investment Strategy

Referring to my previous post, the market is due for short-term correction worldwide. I feel that the bull market is not over yet, this is only a temporary correction. I am going to liquidate 50% of my holdings and prepare to load up on stocks with higher growth potential. I say 50% (in my case) because some of my holdings have actually surpassed their target price, being greedy, I did not sell them too early. For example Cache Logistics Industrial REIT, this one is way over my valuation, it seems trading houses keep upgrading it to BUY and raising their TP. I can understand why, they also cannot determine how much higher this stock might go. If you are happy with a decent 30% profit, lock in your profits before it starts to fall. 

The other 50% of my holdings are value stocks which i will accumulate for as long as i can.(e.g. Singtel, Starhub, HPH Trust, Ascott REIT). I also hold Hyflux for the long run, not because i love it too much to let go but because i got in at a higher buy price and have been dollar-cost-averaging it down to $1.50 since 2011. (One of my biggest error in judgement, but we learn from our mistakes don't we?) Remember Warren's rule number 1: Never lose Money. 

Disclaimer: I just wanted to put down my thoughts in this post, It should NOT be taken as a basis for making any specific investment decisions.