China Goaxian

China Goaxian is a weird one. 

First confession: I have had holdings in it for a long time since its IPO in Singapore. There was this whole hoo-haa about accounting fraud, as a result of which it got de-listed from the SGX. 
My feelings at that time was, "ok fine, shit happens", if i can afford to invest in such a company, i have to be willing to lose 100% of my investment. It was a moment of realisation how things can really go against you.
 
This year as soon as it got listed back, they issued warrants to existing shareholders, of which i was one. Lets see how this plays out in the coming years.

Second confession time: I monitored trading volume and price movements for several weeks so i could buy in equal number of stocks at almost 90% discounted price. 
That was my second bullet. Now i just wait for the opportunity to get out of this dreadful counter as soon as i can hit my target price. 

Recently, ChinaGoaxian has come into the limelight for being a very promising stock, so called multi-bagger. All i have to say to people who are trying to get a piece of action from this counter is be very careful. If investing in ChinaGaoxian has taught me anything, it is to stay away from penny stocks.

Only trade in the past 6 months

First post in a very long time, did not get time to write regularly since i have been travelling quite a bit. Internet is such a commodity when you are overseas in a third world country. Still i try my best to monitor every now and then on market performance and direction. 
For some reason, markets have not been favourable to me in the past 6 months or so during which I did not make any trades. Not enough profit for some, and failed to execute in time for others. However i did have to take profit on my BYD holdings this morning. Here is the chart below. It was just right timing for me to sell before it goes down further.

Holding period: 1 year approx.
Profit: 74%
Actually the sell position is slightly wrong on the image above, i didnt manage to sell at the top. I was late slightly, sold it at HKD48.25
We can never expect to sell at the top anyway, always remember not to be greedy and wait for too long. Take profit as you see fit. I am happy with the returns, so i wanted to share with fellow bloggers. Perhaps i will pick this stock up again after its correction, because i still believe that rechargeable lithium batteries for portable devices and automobiles will be huge in the future.Long journey awaits for BYD in the near future pre 2020.  
 

January and STI update

I didnt have any entries in January because of frequent travelling and work piling up, but it is good that i did not look too much into the markets and make any unnecessary mistakes.
As there was nothing of interest to me in January, looks like worldwide markets are sluggish to say the least. Retails investors as well as Big fund managers are too weary of the cutting down of stimulus by the FEDs. Leaving those of us with investments feeling like we are stuck at the moment, neither having the confidence to buy nor having the courage to sell. 

What are we to do? Just hold on with our investments or run away? Looking at the chart below, it is safe to say STI is still int he short term bear market unless it break through the significant 3100 barrier.

However the crossing of this red line to the upside, will signal me to start looking for good selling prices on the counters i already hold. As i have said time and time again, towards the end of 2014 is not going to be good for holding stocks.

HPH Trust going to test bottom again?

I have held HPH Trust from the start of its listing in SGX. One of the reasons for holding on till now would be the promised dividends. Their dividend returns remain above average compared to Bluechip stocks and some REITs even. Now I am wondering if its a good idea to stock up more at lower prices. Look at the chart below:

 At the bottom 57cents, it was over 40% discount to its IPO price and a great place to pick up the stock. Unfortunately i did not because at that time nobody knew where the actual bottom would be. Anyway, 2 years have past and we have all observed price movements, strengths and weaknesses of HPH trust.
Since that bottom in Oct-Nov 2011, it has been trending up 85cents but never crossing it. Recently it broke through (green line) uptrend in mid 2013, I knew it is time for major correction again. This time it is going to test the bottom 57 cents again. What is the fair value of HPH by local brokerages? its constantly ranging between 70-80cents. 

Even at the forecasted DPU at 40HKcents/share which translates to 5.2cents (US), buying HPH at 60cents or below will give dividend returns approximately 8.6%. Also giving me a chance to lower by buying price significantly. 

Time to be patient and just wait for the opportunity to get HPH at discount price.

*The above is not recommendation to buy or sell HPH, dont speculate. Most financial guru's will put HPH on "HOLD" or "SELL" but try not to let them influence your long term vision. Long term investors should not be swayed by price volatility but instead look at returns on investment and gradual growth in portfolio size over time. 

 

XOM target almost there, Other US stocks to watch

Referring to my last post on "ExxonMobil gets another boost". My profit target price is still $108". I believe this is just a matter of time as XOM closed last night at $99.54, gaining almost 7% since my last article. (i.e. if you have been following).

Other US stocks to watch: Goldman Sachs (GS), Coca Cola (KO), Mondelez (MDLZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG). 

Keep a close eye on leadership stocks in everysector to gauge an idea of market direction. For example Goldman Sachs price movement provides excellent market direction relative to US, it works for me. This is one the hints you can take away. When a leadership stock such as GS falters, it is time to be skeptical of the market in general. For the past year it has been bullish and last night it broke past $170 barrier. Where is the next stop? $180-$185. When GS reaches, $230-$240 next year, start packing up because some of the smartest people in the world work for Goldman, they invest in their own company. When markets are heading for a downturn, when the economy cannot expand further, M&A deals stop, things start t contract. These people are the first to pull their money out. 

Okay, realistically I have gone overboard and exagerrated the above sentiments, but it is true to a certain extent. It has worked for me in the past few years, to follow Goldman Sachs. Might also work for you :)
 
 

Suntec REIT potential upside

Looking at Suntec REIT today. In the past year, It was a good trade opportunity if only you took profit after hitting $1.70++ like me. Now the counter has come down to a significant buy level of $1.50
My target is going to be around the $1.90 - $2.00 region. Looking at the graph below, the uptrend line seems to have a strong support. Bearing in mind, in order for the bull run to be intact, it must not drop below the previous low of $1.12

There is also a possibility that it might break the supporting trendline. In which case next support is $1.30 region. If you have been holding for the long run, this might be a good opportunity to buy more into SuntecREIT. Not the forget that the revamped Suntec City Mall and Exhibition halls had opened in Sept this year. Looking forward, Suntec has alot of upside to increading rental returns as they also own some critical/vital property in MBFC.

 

Not All Markets Are the Same

Mixed feeling analysing my portfolio today. I know that my entry points have not been excellent in the past for Singapore stocks. Of course over the past several years, my timing has improved. My failure to have proper exit strategy in the past has haunted me and I still hold on to my biggest losses, namely Hyflux (30% loss) and ChinaGaoxian (still 67% loss after they re-enlisted into the exchange). Those two are the main culprits. Otherwise excluding them average loss is 8%. I'm not that worried as almost 65% is allocated to REITS giving me 7% returns on average. REITs on average are not performing well. Gonna get my rights issue+access @ $1 for Ascott REIT soon, so might bring my losses down slightly.

Anyway the reason for this post is to share an interesting point here. How come SGX is lagging while the rest of the world is moving towards new highs? I really dont understand. Thank GOD, I have spread or "diversified" my portfolio to stay invested in US, Japan, HK/China as well.

(*I didnt take into account dividends)

As you can see almost 60% is parked in Singapore. Most of them are in the red but only slightly, this year end rally will help me to exit some positions with profit + dividends. As for NYSE/NASDAQ, holding mainly consumer/defensive stocks like KO and MDLZ with decent returns of 20%. 

Best performing market for me is still the chinese stocks, timing was good, entry was just after the bottoming out after 3 years of sluggish growth in China. However i wish i had put more into chinese stocks. Mainly holding BYD Intl and China Insurance. 

A good lesson here is to stay diversified then only you can lower your risk.